On November 6, 2025, Chengdu, China – The Institute for Disaster Management and Reconstruction (IDMR) at Sichuan University was honored to host a distinguished academic lecture by Prof. Didier Sornette. He is a Member of the European Academy of Sciences and the Swiss Academy of Engineering Sciences, the Dean of the Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management (Risks-X) at the Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), and a Professor at ETH Zurich. The presentation, titled “Dragon-Kings: Statistical Tools, Generating Mechanisms, Prediction and Control of Extremes in Geosciences,” provided profound insights into the analysis and forecasting of catastrophic events.

The session was warmly opened by Dean Prof. Di Baofeng, who welcomed Prof. Sornette and highlighted his pioneering work on extreme risks, particularly his groundbreaking “Dragon-King” theory.

In his presentation, Prof. Sornette moved beyond the concept of "Black Swans" to introduce the “Dragon-King” (DK) framework. He explained that DKs are extreme events that are not only exceptionally large ("Kings") but are also generated by unique mechanisms ("Dragons"). In particular, he argued that, unlike Black Swans, many Dragon-Kings can be anticipated through rigorous statistical detection and monitoring of precursory signals.

Prof. Sornette illustrated the concept with compelling examples relevant to geosciences and disaster management, including earthquakes, landslides, floods, nuclear accidents, etc. He demonstrated how specific tools, like the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity model, can identify the build-up of instabilities, offering a practical framework for proactive risk governance.

Following a Q&A session, Dean Prof. Di Baofeng underscored the significant relevance of the Dragon-King theory to IDMR's core mission. He concluded by expressing IDMR's strong desire for future collaboration with Prof. Sornette, looking forward to integrating these advanced concepts into the institute’s research.